Agentes de mercado anticipan que el dólar podría superar la barrera de los $900 y la bolsa caer hasta 10% tras resultado de las presidenciales

Tras la victoria de Gabriel Boric en las elecciones, la preocupación del mercado se centra principalmente en quiénes serán parte del equipo económico del nuevo gobierno, Ministerio de Economía y Hacienda.

Francisco Simián, economista Jefe de Altafid, en declaraciones con Pulso de La Tercera comentó que: “más que poner el foco en las reacciones inmediatas después de la elección, hay que mirar los acontecimientos dentro de un plazo más largo. Las variaciones del IPSA y la depreciación del peso chileno simplemente reflejan que alos inversionistas no les gusta la incertidumbre y que, en presencia de ella, exigen un premio que hoy no se ve en Chile. Las preferencias de riesgo-retorno de los inversionistas no han cambiado, lo que ha cambiado es la percepción de riesgo de invertir en Chile”.

El especialista argumenta que esa mirada sobre Chile se agravó en octubre de 2019, momento a partir del cual muchos inversionistas locales cayeron en cuenta del error que habían cometido al no diversificar suficientemente. “Si miramos los retornos en dólares, el mercado estadounidense exhibe sólo este año un retorno superior al 25%, mientras el retorno del mercado local en dólares es negativo. Este cambio de mentalidad no tiene vuelta atrás, al menos no dentro del próximo período presidencial. Hay un daño al prestigio del país que ya está hecho, por lo que la sensación de incertidumbre y la tendencia a buscar refugio fuera de Chile persistirán. Esto obviamente repercutirá negativamente sobre el peso chileno y el mercado accionario local”, puntualiza.

Otro punto que complementa Simián es que “el mercado y los analistas políticos percibían esta segunda vuelta como una elección muy cerrada, por lo que el diferencial con que ganó Gabriel Boric superó las expectativas. esto probablemente magnificará los efectos que veremos hoy lunes en el mercado accionario y cambiario”.

Related authors: Francisco Simian

Full article: https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia/agentes-de-mercado-anticipan-que-el-dolar-podria-superar-la-barrera-de-los-900-y-la-bolsa-caer-hasta-10-tras-resultado-de-las-presidenciales/IV62GV74WFETLGLSQ3EA5UPAZQ/

Media: Pulso La Tercera

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