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Mercados y guerra: las monedas de la región aguantan, mientras crece el fantasma de la inflación ante un conflicto prolongado en Ucrania

En relación con la inflación y el debilitamiento de las monedas emergentes que ha generado el conflicto en Ucrania, Pulso de La Tercera preguntó a destacados economistas por los efectos que tendría un conflicto prolongado.

Francisco J. Simian, economista jefe de Altafid, sostuvo que “el conflicto ya está poniendo presión sobre las cadenas de logística globales de una serie de productos, como el petróleo, varios tipos de grano (cuyos precios se han disparado en anticipación de una cosecha mucho menos productiva en Ucrania), los fertilizantes (Rusia es el mayor exportador mundial) y algunos metales, como el aluminio y el níquel (que ha alcanzado sus mayores precios en más de una década). Mayores costos impactarán de manera distinta a diferentes empresas, pero si hay un impacto significativo en la inflación, esto podría llevar a los bancos centrales a reevaluar sus políticas de ajuste”.

Respecto de la renta variable, Simian dice que “en términos muy generales, esta incertidumbre es mala para la renta variable, con la excepción de sectores específicos que han visto sus valoraciones crecer, como algunos grandes proveedores de armamento y empresas de ciberseguridad”.

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