Por qué el anuncio de Hacienda de vender dólares tuvo un impacto acotado en el tipo de cambio

El dólar ha tenido una sostenida apreciación respecto del peso en el último tiempo. El martes comenzó a devaluarse el dólar frente al peso chileno, estabilizándose el jueves 23 de junio en torno a los $910.

En Chile, hay dos factores que no puede controlar: uno de ellos es el debilitamiento de la economía de EE. UU. y la lenta recuperación de China tras la pandemia, que ha afectado el precio del cobre. A esto se suma los anuncios realizados por dos entidades: el primero por el Ministerio de Hacienda y el segundo por el Banco Central. Debido a esto, Ex-Ante entrevistó a varios economistas para analizar las reacciones del mercado frente a estos anuncios.

Francisco Simian dice que hay dos consecuencias en el anuncio del viernes. “Una es producida por el efecto directo que tendría cualquier aumento en la oferta de dólares en el mercado cambiario local: apreciación del peso chileno, lo que efectivamente ocurrió hoy. En este caso, además, se conocen los montos que Hacienda planea vender. El segundo efecto: el Gobierno ha dado una señal clara de que no está tranquilo con el valor que ha alcanzado el dólar y está dispuesto a entrar al mercado para reducir el tipo de cambio. Esto no sólo abre la puerta a futuras operaciones adicionales, sino que también envía una señal al Banco Central”.

Además, plantea que la señal del Banco Central es que dispondrá de más dólares si resuelve intervenir. “Además de sus reservas, cuenta desde este año con líneas de liquidez provistas por el FMI (Fondo Monetario Internacional) y el FLAR (Fondo Latinoamericano de Reservas), sumándose a la que ya tenía con la Reserva Federal de EE. UU. (FIMA repo facility). Ahora agrega una más con el acceso al RMBLA (Renminbi Liquidity Arrangement)”, describe.

Related authors: Francisco Simian

Full article: https://www.ex-ante.cl/por-que-el-anuncio-de-hacienda-de-vender-dolares-tuvo-un-impacto-acotado-en-el-tipo-de-cambio/

Media: Ex-Ante

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