Tasas, incertidumbre e intervención del BC: Los factores detrás de la volatilidad del dólar este año y las proyecciones para 2023

El dólar se apreció este año de manera significativa no solamente frente al peso chileno. Los casos del euro, la libra esterlina y el yen japonés son claros ejemplos que reflejan una apreciación del dólar a nivel internacional. Sin embargo, desde septiembre la moneda estadounidense ha perdido fuerza, lo que también se ha visto reflejado en el tipo de cambio local. Aun así, el Dollar Index ha subido cerca de 9% este año, aunque en algún minuto la cifra fue casi de 19%.

La principal causa detrás de la apreciación del dólar fueron los aumentos en las tasas de interés en Estados Unidos, más tempranas y agresivas que las de otros bancos centrales de economías desarrolladas.

Consultado por Emol respecto de los hitos que marcaron la trayectoria del tipo de cambio durante 2022, Francisco Simian, Economista jefe de Altafid, aseguró que "en Chile, creemos que hubo dos hitos importantes. Primero, la intervención del Banco Central en el mercado cambiario en los meses de julio y septiembre. Y, segundo, el plebiscito de septiembre, que ayudó a reducir la incertidumbre". Y agregó que "no hemos vuelto a ver los valores de julio para el tipo de cambio dólar-peso".

En cuanto a su visión para 2023, Francisco Simian indicó que no creemos que en 2023 "el dólar debería volver a los niveles más altos a los que llegó este año, a no ser que ocurra una crisis a nivel internacional. En Chile, estimamos que los precios del cobre y del litio se mantendrán elevados, contribuyendo a sostener el peso."

Related authors: Francisco Simian

Full article: https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/2022/12/27/1082141/volatilidad-dolar-este-ano-proyecciones.html

Media: Emol

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